/FONT#0=BASL30/FONT#1=BASI30/FONT#2=BASB30/FONT#3=NGR40
␈↓␈↓↓␈↓α␈↓β␈↓
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ απ␈↓βSTATEMENT OF AD HOC COMMITTEE ON PROJECT INDEPENDENCE␈↓
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓g(This is a statement of the undersigned and not of organizations with which they are affiliated.)
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_As␈αwe␈αunderstand␈αit,␈α
␈↓αProject␈α
Independence␈↓␈α
is␈α
aimed␈α
at␈α
making␈α
the␈α
United␈α
States␈α
substantially
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hindependent␈α
of␈α
foreign␈α
sources␈αof␈αenergy␈αor␈αat␈αleast␈αto␈αacquire␈αthe␈αcapability␈αto␈αdo␈αso.␈α␈↓αWe␈αsupport
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hthis␈α∩goal␈↓,␈α∩and␈α⊃we␈α⊃are␈α⊃concerned␈α⊃that␈α⊃there␈α⊃has␈α⊃not␈α⊃yet␈α⊃been␈α⊃developed␈α⊃a␈α⊃national␈α⊃policy␈α⊃that
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hcorrectly␈α
identifies␈α
short␈α
term␈α
and␈α
long␈α
term␈αproblems␈αand␈αcorrectly␈αassigns␈αroles␈αto␈αthe␈αpublic␈αand
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hprivate␈α
sectors␈α
in␈α
solving␈α
them.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H


␈↓ ↓H␈↓αThe␈α
U.S.␈α
Energy␈α
Position␈↓
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_In␈α∞the␈α∞long␈α∞term,␈α∞the␈α∞U.S.␈α∞and␈α∞the␈α∞world␈α
have␈α
good␈α
prospects␈α
for␈α
energy.␈α
Either␈α
nuclear␈α
or
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hsolar␈α
energy␈α
by␈α
itself␈α
can␈α
provide␈α
enough␈α
energy␈αso␈αthat␈αthe␈αpopulation␈αthe␈αearth␈αcan␈αsupport␈αwill
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hbe␈α
limited␈α
by␈α
something␈α
else.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_The␈α∪U.S.␈α∪is␈α∪in␈α∪a␈α∪particularly␈α∪good␈α∪long␈α∪term␈α∪position,␈α∪because␈α∪of␈α∪its␈α∩resource␈α∩base,␈α∩its
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hestablished␈αlight␈αand␈αheavy␈αindustry,␈αand␈αits␈αtechnological␈αmanpower.␈αThere␈αis␈αno␈αmoral␈αimperative
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hto␈α
reduce␈α
our␈α
per␈α
capita␈α
energy␈α
consumption,␈α
␈↓↓provided␈α
we␈α
contrive␈α
to␈αobtain␈αour␈αenergy␈αfrom␈αwithin
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hour␈α
own␈α
borders␈↓.␈α
Moreover,␈αwe␈αprobably␈αcan␈αgive␈αother␈αcountries␈αsome␈αhelp␈αin␈αsolving␈αtheir␈αenergy
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hproblems.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_The␈α∪U.S.␈α∪has␈α∪serious␈α∪short␈α∪term␈α∪problems␈α∩stemming␈α∩from␈α∩the␈α∩decreasing␈α∩availability␈α∩of
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hdomestic␈α↔petroleum␈α↔and␈α↔profiteering␈α↔by␈α↔the␈α↔petroleum␈α↔exporting␈α↔countries.␈α⊗Other␈α⊗countries,
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hespecially␈α
the␈α
underdeveloped␈α
countries,␈α
have␈α
even␈α
more␈α
serious␈α
and␈α
more␈α
immediate␈α
problems.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H


␈↓ ↓H␈↓αEnvironment␈α
and␈α
the␈α
Demand␈α
for␈α
Energy␈↓
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_Energy␈αuse␈αand␈αclean␈αair␈αand␈αwater␈αare␈αboth␈α
essential␈α
components␈α
of␈α
the␈α
standard␈α
of␈α
living␈α
in
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hthis␈α∩country.␈α∩The␈α∩large␈α∩␈↓↓per␈α∩capita␈↓␈α∩use␈α∩of␈α∩energy␈α∩has␈α∩made␈α∩possible␈α⊃a␈α⊃substantial␈α⊃part␈α⊃of␈α⊃our
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hindividual␈α∃freedom␈α∃and␈α∃prosperity,␈α∃but␈α∃our␈α∃health␈α∃and␈α∃our␈α∀enjoyment␈α∀of␈α∀our␈α∀freedom␈α∀and
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hprosperity␈α∂are␈α∂reduced␈α∂by␈α∂environmental␈α∂neglect␈α∂some␈α∂of␈α∞which␈α∞comes␈α∞from␈α∞the␈α∞ways␈α∞energy␈α∞has
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hbeen␈αobtained.␈αFortunately,␈αpresently␈αknown␈αtechnology␈αpermits␈αboth␈αfurther␈αincreases␈αin␈αour␈αuse␈αof
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Henergy␈αand␈αfurther␈αimprovement␈α
of␈α
the␈α
environment.␈α
In␈α
the␈α
short␈α
run,␈α
the␈α
rate␈α
at␈α
which␈α
we␈α
improve
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hthe␈αenvironment␈αand␈αthe␈αrate␈αat␈αwhich␈αwe␈αincrease␈αthe␈αstandard␈αof␈αliving␈αof␈αthe␈αvarious␈αgroups␈αin
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hour␈α∩population␈α∩compete.␈α∩The␈α∩political␈α∩process␈α∩must␈α∩mediate␈α⊃this␈α⊃competition␈α⊃as␈α⊃it␈α⊃mediates␈α⊃all
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hcompetitions␈α
for␈α
public␈α
resources.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_Prediction␈αof␈αfuture␈αenergy␈αdemand␈αby␈αextrapolating␈αexponential␈αgrowth␈αcurves␈αis␈αunrealistic.
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓HThe␈α∞growth␈α∞in␈α∞American␈α∞cattle␈α∞production␈α∞between␈α∞1860␈α∞and␈α∞1880␈α∞would␈α∞have␈α∞led␈α
to␈α
predictions
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hthat␈αeach␈αAmerican␈αwould␈αhave␈α
to␈α
eat␈α
a␈α
cow␈α
a␈α
day␈α
long␈α
before␈α
now.␈α
Our␈α
ability␈α
to␈α
use␈α
energy␈α
␈↓↓for␈α
its
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hpresent␈αapplications␈↓␈αwill␈αsaturate␈αin␈αthe␈αnear␈αfuture,␈αprobably␈αbefore␈αthe␈αyear␈α2000.␈αThus␈αregistered
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hautomobiles␈α∞have␈α
grown␈α
from␈α
30␈α
million␈α
to␈α
100␈α
million␈α
since␈α
World␈α
War␈α
II;␈α
they␈α
cannot␈α
grow␈α
by
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hthat␈α∞ratio␈α∞again␈α∞in␈α
the␈α
next␈α
thirty␈α
years␈α
without␈α
there␈α
being␈α
more␈α
cars␈α
than␈α
people.␈α
On␈α
the␈α
other
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hhand,␈α
home␈α
air-conditioning␈α
has␈α
just␈α
started␈α
its␈α
fast␈α
growth␈α
phase␈α
in␈α
many␈α
parts␈α
of␈α
the␈α
country.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_In␈αthe␈α
long␈α
run,␈α
there␈α
is␈α
no␈α
need␈α
to␈α
distinguish␈α
energy␈α
from␈α
other␈α
commodities␈α
or␈α
from␈α
human
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hlabor␈αby␈αa␈αspecial␈αconservation␈α
ethic.␈α
Energy␈α
is␈α
a␈α
commodity␈α
like␈α
any␈α
other,␈α
and␈α
if␈α
its␈α
price␈α
expresses
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hall␈α
the␈α
costs␈α
that␈α
go␈α
into␈α
its␈αproduction,␈αpeople␈αwill␈αregulate␈αtheir␈αown␈αuse␈αof␈αit␈αin␈αaccordance␈αwith
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Htheir␈α
own␈α
interests␈α
better␈α
than␈α
the␈α
government␈α
or␈α
preaching␈α
can␈α
do.␈α
In␈α
the␈α
short␈α
run,␈αemergencies
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hcalling␈αfor␈αspecial␈αconservation␈αmeasures␈αcan␈αoccur,␈αand␈αa␈αspecial␈αeffort␈αto␈αcall␈αpeoples's␈αattention␈αto
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hways␈α
in␈α
which␈αenergy␈αis␈αwasted␈αare␈αworthwhile.␈αHowever,␈αthere␈αis␈αsome␈αtendency␈αto␈αuse␈αthe␈αenergy
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hcrisis␈α
to␈α
scare␈α
people␈α
into␈α
making␈αchanges␈αin␈αlife␈αstyle␈αthat␈αsome␈αintellectuals␈αconsider␈αdesirable␈αfor
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hother␈αreasons.␈αOfficials␈αshould␈αresist␈αany␈αtemptation␈αto␈αdo␈α
this,␈α
because␈α
it␈α
is␈α
dishonest,␈α
and␈α
when␈α
the
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hdishonesty␈α
is␈α
discovered,␈α
public␈α
distrust␈α
will␈α
be␈α
increased.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H


␈↓ ↓H␈↓αGoals␈α
for␈α
Project␈α
Independence␈↓
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_Since␈α
petroleum␈α
and␈α
natural␈α
gas␈α
are␈α
the␈α
high␈α
priced␈α
commodities␈αin␈αshort␈αsupply,␈αsince␈αU.S.
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hproduction␈α⊂of␈α⊂them␈α⊂has␈α⊂probably␈α⊂hit␈α⊂its␈α⊂peak,␈α⊂and␈α∂since␈α∂they␈α∂will␈α∂be␈α∂all␈α∂gone␈α∂in␈α∂the␈α∂forseeable
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hfuture,␈αmany␈αof␈αthe␈αgoals␈αof␈α␈↓αProject␈αIndependence␈↓␈αcan␈αbe␈αput␈αin␈αterms␈αof␈αreducing␈αour␈αdependence
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hon␈α
them.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_1.␈αIn␈αthe␈αshort␈α
run,␈α
we␈α
can␈α
increase␈α
the␈α
domestic␈α
supply␈α
by␈α
finding␈α
more␈α
oil␈α
fields␈α
especially␈α
in
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hthe␈αoffshore␈αareas␈αthat␈αhave␈αnot␈αbeen␈αexplored␈αyet.␈αWe␈αcan␈αalso␈αfurther␈αemploy␈αsecondary␈αrecovery
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hmethods.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_2.␈α∂We␈α∂can␈α∂also␈α∂reduce␈α∂demand␈α∂by␈α∂eliminating␈α∂waste.␈α∞If␈α∞necessary,␈α∞we␈α∞can␈α∞make␈α∞people␈α∞use
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hsmaller␈α∞cars␈α∞and␈α∞use␈α∞public␈α∞transportation.␈α∞However,␈α∞these␈α
measures␈α
are␈α
not␈α
necessary␈α
in␈α
the␈α
long
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hrun,␈αand␈αthe␈α
resulting␈α
infringement␈α
on␈α
individual␈α
freedom␈α
should␈α
be␈α
avoided␈α
if␈α
possible␈α
and␈α
limited
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hin␈α
time␈α
if␈α
not.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_3.␈αIt␈αshould␈αbe␈αan␈αearly␈αgoal␈αof␈α␈↓αProject␈αIndependence␈↓␈αto␈αeliminate␈αthe␈αuse␈αof␈αnatural␈αgas␈αand
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hpetroleum␈α
for␈α
the␈α
central␈α
station␈α
generation␈α
of␈α
electric␈α
power.␈α
Already␈α
coal␈α
and␈α
nuclear␈α
energy␈α
are
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hcheaper␈α⊗and␈α⊗the␈α⊗price␈α⊗differential␈α⊗will␈α⊗grow␈α∃with␈α∃time.␈α∃Some␈α∃of␈α∃the␈α∃vagueness␈α∃of␈α∃␈↓αProject
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓HIndependence␈↓␈α
will␈α
vanish␈α
once␈α
we␈α
can␈α
set␈α
a␈α
target␈α
date␈α
for␈α
this␈α
conversion.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_4.␈αNext␈αwe␈αshould␈α
provide␈α
substitutes␈α
for␈α
natural␈α
gas␈α
and␈α
natural␈α
petroleum␈α
for␈α
space␈α
heating.
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓HIt␈α∞can␈α∞be␈α∞done␈α∞by␈α∞a␈α∞combination␈α∞of␈α∞solar␈α∞heating,␈α
heat␈α
pumps,␈α
synthetic␈α
gas␈α
made␈α
from␈α
coal␈α
and
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hcentral␈α∞station␈α∞hot␈α∞water.␈α∞This␈α∞step␈α∞will␈α∞take␈α∞longer␈α∞than␈α∞elimination␈α
of␈α
petroleum␈α
use␈α
to␈α
produce
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Helectricity␈αand␈αmakes␈αsense␈αonly␈αafter␈αthe␈αformer␈αhas␈αbeen␈αaccomplished,␈αsince␈αit␈αis␈αmore␈αefficient␈αto
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Huse␈α⊃petroleum␈α⊃directly␈α⊃for␈α⊃space␈α⊃heating␈α⊂than␈α⊂to␈α⊂use␈α⊂electricity␈α⊂generated␈α⊂by␈α⊂petroleum␈α⊂for␈α⊂that
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hpurpose.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_5.␈α∂It␈α∂will␈α∞take␈α∞still␈α∞longer␈α∞to␈α∞provide␈α∞substitutes␈α∞for␈α∞petroleum␈α∞for␈α∞use␈α∞in␈α∞vehicles.␈α∞Synthetic
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hgasoline␈α∩from␈α∩coal␈α∩is␈α∩the␈α∩most␈α⊃immediate␈α⊃possibility␈α⊃with␈α⊃hydrogen␈α⊃a␈α⊃longer␈α⊃term␈α⊃bet.␈α⊃Electric
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hvehicles␈α
seem␈α
attractive,␈α
but␈α
it␈α
is␈α
not␈α
yet␈α
clear␈α
that␈α
a␈α
suitable␈α
battery␈α
is␈α
possible.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H


␈↓ ↓H␈↓αResearch␈α
and␈α
Development␈↓
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_All␈α∂potentially␈α∂cost-effective␈α∂sources␈α∂of␈α∂energy␈α∂or␈α∂ways␈α∞of␈α∞conserving␈α∞it␈α∞should␈α∞be␈α∞explored.
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓HThis␈αincludes␈αfunding␈αparallel␈αapproaches␈αto␈αimportant␈αproblems.␈αIt␈αis␈αimportant␈αto␈αavoid␈αthe␈αkind
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hof␈αwishful␈αthinking␈αthat␈αeliminates␈αone␈αsource␈αof␈αenergy␈αbecause␈αanother␈αwould␈αbe␈αbetter␈αwhen␈αit␈αis
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hnot␈αyet␈αclear␈αthat␈αthe␈αlatter␈αcan␈αbe␈αdeveloped␈αin␈αa␈αreasonable␈αtime␈αto␈αprovide␈αenergy␈αat␈αa␈α
reasonable
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hcost.␈α
People␈α
who␈α
want␈α
to␈α
develop␈α
one␈α
approach␈α
often␈α
have␈α
a␈α
tendency␈α
to␈α
knock␈α
potential␈α
rivals.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_We␈α
think␈α
the␈α
following␈α
approaches␈α
are␈α
important:
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_1.␈α∩We␈α∩can␈α∩find␈α∩new␈α∩methods␈α∩of␈α∩exploring␈α∩for␈α∩oil␈α∩and␈α∩gas␈α⊃and␈α⊃new␈α⊃secondary␈α⊃recovery
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Htechniques.␈αIt␈αshould␈αbe␈αclearly␈αunderstood␈αthat␈αthis␈αonly␈αbuys␈αus␈αtime.␈αWe␈αshould␈αtry␈αto␈αreduce␈αour
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hdependence␈α
on␈αforeign␈αoil␈αfaster␈αthan␈αwe␈αare␈αforced␈αto,␈αbecause␈αother␈αcountries␈αcannot␈αreduce␈αtheir
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hdependence␈α∩as␈α∩fast␈α∩as␈α∩we␈α⊃can.␈α⊃In␈α⊃other␈α⊃words,␈α⊃we␈α⊃should␈α⊃stop␈α⊃outbidding␈α⊃the␈α⊃underdeveloped
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hcountries␈α
for␈α
oil␈α
as␈α
soon␈α
as␈α
possible.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_2.␈αSynthetic␈αpetroleum␈αfrom␈αoil␈αshale␈αand␈αfrom␈αcoal␈αall␈αshould␈αbe␈αdeveloped.␈αWhich␈αwill␈αwin
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hdepends␈α
on␈α
economic␈α
and␈α
environmental␈α
considerations.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_3.␈αThe␈αpresent␈αbreeder␈αreactor␈αprojects␈αshould␈αbe␈αcompleted␈αand␈αalternate␈αbreeder␈αapproaches
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hinvestigated.␈α
The␈α
improvement␈α
of␈α
non-breeder␈α
reactors␈α
should␈α
be␈α
continued.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_4.␈α⊗We␈α⊗should␈α⊗expand␈α⊗the␈α⊗research␈α⊗on␈α⊗fusion␈α⊗power,␈α∃but␈α∃until␈α∃scientific␈α∃feasibility␈α∃is
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hdemonstrated,␈α
we␈α
cannot␈α
count␈α
on␈α
it␈α
for␈α
a␈α
specific␈α
date.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_5.␈αSolar␈αenergy␈αshould␈αbe␈αpushed␈αfor␈αthose␈αapplications␈αfor␈αwhich␈αit␈αmay␈αbe␈αcost-effective␈α
like
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hspace␈α
heating.␈α
Central␈αstation␈αsolar␈αpower␈αshould␈αbe␈αexplored,␈αbut␈αagain␈αwe␈αcan't␈αcount␈αon␈αit␈αfor␈αa
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hspecific␈α
date␈α
until␈α
a␈α
potentially␈α
cost-effective␈α
way␈α
of␈α
producing␈α
it␈α
is␈α
developed.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_6.␈α∂Some␈α∞of␈α∞the␈α∞potential␈α∞ways␈α∞of␈α∞using␈α∞energy␈α∞more␈α∞economically␈α∞such␈α∞as␈α∞better␈α∞automobile
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hengines␈α
and␈α
transmissions␈α
deserve␈α
extensive␈α
research␈α
as␈α
does␈α
building␈α
insulation.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_7.␈α∂Research␈α∞in␈α∞exotic␈α∞sources␈α∞of␈α∞energy,␈α∞e.g.␈α∞geothermal,␈α∞wind␈α∞tide,␈α∞and␈α∞oceanic␈α∞temperature
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hdifference␈α∞should␈α∞be␈α∞supported␈α∞whenever␈α∞an␈α
objective␈α
investigation␈α
shows␈α
a␈α
reasonable␈α
chance␈α
of
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hcost-effectiveness.␈αThere␈αis␈αa␈αtendency␈α
to␈α
believe␈α
that␈α
unexplored␈α
methods␈α
won't␈α
have␈α
the␈α
unpleasant
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hside-effects␈α⊂of␈α⊂known␈α⊂methods,␈α⊂and␈α⊂there␈α⊂is␈α⊂a␈α⊂tendency␈α⊂to␈α⊂continue␈α∂wishful␈α∂thinking␈α∂by␈α∂making
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓H"demonstration␈α
projects"␈α
that␈α
don't␈α
lead␈α
to␈α
any␈α
plausible␈α
path␈α
to␈α
cost-effectiveness.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H


␈↓ ↓H␈↓αNuclear␈α
Energy␈↓
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_Nuclear␈α∂energy␈α∂plays␈α∂a␈α∂special␈α∂role␈α∂in␈α∂public␈α∞thinking␈α∞because␈α∞of␈α∞the␈α∞controversy␈α∞about␈α∞its
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hsafety.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_There␈α⊃are␈α⊂questions␈α⊂about␈α⊂the␈α⊂safety␈α⊂of␈α⊂reactors,␈α⊂emissions␈α⊂from␈α⊂reactors,␈α⊂the␈α⊂storage␈α⊂and
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hhandling␈α
of␈α
radioactive␈α
wastes␈α
and␈α
about␈α
the␈α
possibility␈α
of␈α
theft␈α
of␈α
nuclear␈α
materials␈α
by␈α
terrorists.
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓HNew␈α∞dangers␈α∞and␈α∞new␈α∞ways␈α∞of␈α∞meeting␈α∞them␈α∞continue␈α∞being␈α
discovered,␈α
and␈α
we␈α
will␈α
never␈α
attain
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Habsolute␈α⊂safety␈α⊂or␈α⊂even␈α⊂absolute␈α⊂knowledge␈α⊂about␈α⊂the␈α⊂degree␈α⊂of␈α⊂danger␈α∂that␈α∂currently␈α∂exists.␈α∂As
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hscientists␈α
and␈α
engineers,␈α
we␈α
would␈α
especially␈α
like␈α
to␈α
have␈α
more␈α
information.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_However,␈α∞decisions␈α∞have␈α∞to␈α∞be␈α∞made␈α∞now,␈α∞and␈α∞our␈α∞considered␈α∞judgment␈α
is␈α
that␈α
the␈α
nuclear
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Henergy␈αprogram␈αshould␈αproceed␈αwithout␈αadditional␈αgeneral␈αdelays␈αor␈αmoratoriums,␈αand␈αshould␈αeven
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hbe␈α
speeded␈α
up␈α
if␈αthis␈αis␈αneeded␈αto␈αmeet␈αthe␈αgoals␈αof␈α␈↓αProject␈αIndependence␈↓.␈αThis␈αjudgment␈αapplies
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hin␈α_particular␈α_to␈α↔the␈α↔current␈α↔procedures␈α↔for␈α↔approving␈α↔the␈α↔construction␈α↔of␈α↔reactors,␈α↔to␈α↔the
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hdemonstration␈α
fast␈α
breeder,␈α
and␈α
to␈α
the␈α
recycling␈α
of␈α
plutonium.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_We␈α⊗believe␈α⊗that␈α⊗present␈α⊗American␈α⊗procedures␈α∃are␈α∃adequate␈α∃though␈α∃subject␈α∃to␈α∃further
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Himprovement.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_Some␈αof␈αthe␈αtechniques␈αof␈αsafety␈αanalysis␈αdeveloped␈αin␈αconnection␈αwith␈αnuclear␈αenergy␈αshould
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hbe␈α
extended␈α
to␈α
other␈α
energy␈α
systems␈α
and␈α
to␈α
other␈α
industrial␈α
activities.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_In␈α∂the␈α∞meantime,␈α∞independent␈α∞of␈α∞the␈α∞nuclear␈α∞controversy␈α∞although␈α∞exacerbated␈α∞by␈α∞it,␈α∞is␈α∞the
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hfact␈α∂that␈α∂the␈α∂nuclear␈α∂industry␈α∂is␈α∂faltering␈α∞badly␈α∞and␈α∞cannot␈α∞meet␈α∞the␈α∞commitments␈α∞it␈α∞has␈α∞already
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hmade␈αwithout␈αa␈αconcerted␈αeffort␈αof␈αgovernment␈αand␈αindustry.␈αThe␈αcapacity␈α
of␈α
several␈α
components␈α
of
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hthe␈α⊂fuel␈α⊂cycle␈α⊂is␈α⊂likely␈α⊂to␈α⊂prove␈α⊂less␈α⊂than␈α⊂required␈α⊂by␈α⊂the␈α⊂projected␈α⊂power␈α∂plants.␈α∂These␈α∂clearly
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hinclude␈α∪uranium␈α∪enrichment␈α∩and␈α∩spent␈α∩fuel␈α∩reprocessing␈α∩and␈α∩probably␈α∩also␈α∩include␈α∩spent␈α∩fuel
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hstorage␈α
and␈α
waste␈α
disposal.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H


␈↓ ↓H␈↓αThe␈α
International␈α
Energy␈α
Picture␈↓
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_Never␈α∂in␈α∂history␈α∂has␈α∂the␈α∂price␈α∂of␈α∂such␈α∂an␈α∂important␈α∂commodity␈α∞of␈α∞international␈α∞commerce
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hbeen␈αraised␈αso␈α
far␈α
above␈α
costs␈α
of␈α
production␈α
by␈α
a␈α
cartel.␈α
Never␈α
have␈α
the␈α
effects␈α
on␈α
so␈α
many␈α
countries
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hbeen␈αso␈αserious.␈αThe␈αUnited␈αStates,␈αof␈αcourse,␈αis␈αone␈αof␈αthe␈αlesser␈αsufferers,␈αbecause␈αwe␈αstill␈αproduce
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hmost␈α
of␈α
our␈α
own␈α
energy␈α
and␈α
because␈α
we␈α
can␈α
probably␈α
afford␈α
the␈α
exorbitant␈α
prices.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_The␈α
other␈α
industrial␈α
countries␈α
and␈α
the␈α
underdeveloped␈α
countries␈α
have␈αeven␈αmore␈αimmediate
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Henergy␈α
problems␈α
than␈α
we␈α
do.␈α
Therefore,␈α
they␈α
are␈αmore␈αlikely␈αto␈αhave␈αto␈αundertake␈αcrash␈αprograms
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hthan␈α∞we␈α∞are.␈α∞Unless␈α∞we␈α∞want␈α
to␈α
suffer␈α
the␈α
ill␈α
consequences␈α
of␈α
their␈α
failure,␈α
we␈α
should␈α
help␈α
insure
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Htheir␈α∩success␈α∩by␈α∩helping␈α∩develop␈α∩technology.␈α⊃In␈α⊃particular,␈α⊃the␈α⊃pace␈α⊃of␈α⊃development␈α⊃of␈α⊃nuclear
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Henergy,␈α∞automation␈α∞of␈α∞coal␈α∞mining,␈α∞coal␈α
gasification,␈α
and␈α
oil␈α
shale␈α
should␈α
be␈α
partly␈α
determined␈α
by
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hthe␈α
needs␈α
of␈α
others.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_In␈αaddition,␈αwe␈αcan␈αprobably␈αget␈α
in␈α
a␈α
position␈α
to␈α
export␈α
energy.␈α
We␈α
should␈α
continue␈α
exporting
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hcoal,␈α
nuclear␈α
power␈α
plants,␈α
and␈α
nuclear␈α
fuel.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H


␈↓ ↓H␈↓αCrash␈α
Programs␈↓
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_If␈αthe␈αinternational␈αprice␈α
of␈α
oil␈α
can␈α
be␈α
talked␈α
down,␈α
if␈α
there␈α
is␈α
substantial␈α
increased␈α
investment
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hin␈α
present␈α
energy␈α
sources,␈αand␈αif␈αthere␈αis␈αa␈αprompt␈αstart␈αon␈αdeveloping␈αreplacements␈αfor␈αpetroleum,
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hthen␈α
crash␈α
programs␈α
are␈α
probably␈α
unnecessary␈α
-␈α
at␈α
least␈α
in␈α
the␈α
U.S.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_However,␈αthe␈αexperience␈αof␈αWorld␈αWar␈αII␈αtells␈αus␈αthat␈αwhen␈αnecessary␈αwe␈α
can␈α
greatly␈α
increase
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hour␈αprogress␈αif␈αwe␈αare␈αwilling␈αto␈αsacrifice␈αsome␈αdomestic␈αconsumption␈αtemporarily␈αand␈αalso␈αto␈αmake
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hdecisions␈αpromptly.␈αFor␈αexample,␈αthe␈αHanford␈αplutonium␈αproduction␈αreactors␈α
handle␈α
about␈α
the␈α
same
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hpower␈αas␈αa␈αmodern␈αnuclear␈αpower␈αplant.␈αIt␈αwas␈αin␈αoperation␈αtwo␈αyears␈αafter␈αthe␈αfirst␈αchain␈αreaction,
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hbut␈αnow␈αa␈αnuclear␈αpower␈αplant␈αtakes␈αten␈αyears.␈αIt␈αis␈αsaid␈αthat␈αwe␈αcan't␈αexpand␈αour␈αnuclear␈αprogram
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hbecause␈αof␈αa␈αshortage␈αof␈αnuclear␈αengineers,␈αbut␈αwhen␈αthe␈αHanford␈αplant␈αwas␈αstarted,␈αthere␈αwere␈αno
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hnuclear␈α
engineers␈α
at␈α
all.␈α
The␈α
same␈α
considerations␈αapply␈αto␈αpossible␈αcrash␈αprograms␈αin␈αother␈αenergy
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hareas,␈α
but␈α
in␈α
the␈α
nuclear␈α
field,␈α
we␈α
can␈α
directly␈α
compare␈α
performance␈α
under␈α
routine␈αand␈αemergency
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hconditions.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_Once␈αspecific␈αgoals␈αare␈αestablished,␈αFEA␈αshould␈αpromptly␈αdetermine␈αwhether␈αa␈αcrash␈α
program
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓His␈α∞needed␈α∞to␈α∞meet␈α∞them.␈α∞Alternatively,␈α∞in␈α∞determining␈α∞the␈α
options␈α
to␈α
put␈α
before␈α
the␈α
President␈α
and
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓HCongress,␈α
crash␈α
programs␈α
should␈α
definitely␈α
be␈α
included.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H


␈↓ ↓H␈↓αRoles␈α
of␈α
the␈α
Private␈α
and␈α
Public␈α
Sectors␈↓
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_The␈α
production␈α
of␈α
energy␈αhas␈αtraditionally␈αbeen␈αa␈αmatter␈αfor␈αthe␈αprivate␈αsector,␈αand␈αthe␈αrole
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hof␈α∀the␈α∀government␈α∀has␈α∀been␈α∀to␈α∀control␈α∀the␈α∀rates␈α∪set␈α∪by␈α∪natural␈α∪monopolies.␈α∪In␈α∪addition␈α∪the
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hgovernment␈α∂has␈α∂traditionally␈α∞made␈α∞rules␈α∞to␈α∞protect␈α∞the␈α∞environment␈α∞and␈α∞workers.␈α∞In␈α∞general,␈α∞this
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hdivision␈α
of␈α
function␈α
will␈α
continue,␈α
but␈α
the␈α
government␈α
has␈α
some␈α
new␈α
roles:
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_1.␈α⊂In␈α⊂the␈α⊂international␈α⊂sphere,␈α⊂the␈α∂government␈α∂has␈α∂to␈α∂bargain␈α∂for␈α∂the␈α∂country␈α∂as␈α∂a␈α∂whole.
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓HPrivate␈αcompanies,␈αespecially␈αwhen␈αrestrained␈αby␈αanti-trust␈αfrom␈αco-ordinating␈αtheir␈αpolicies␈αare␈αtoo
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hweak␈α
for␈α
this.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_2.␈α∞Some␈α∞investments␈α∞may␈α∞have␈α∞to␈α
be␈α
made␈α
whose␈α
payoff␈α
will␈α
depend␈α
on␈α
future␈α
government
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hpolicy.␈α⊃This␈α⊃includes␈α⊃investment␈α⊃in␈α⊃technologies␈α⊃that␈α⊃may␈α⊃later␈α⊃be␈α⊃unprofitable␈α⊂because␈α⊂of␈α⊂new
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Henvironmental␈α
restrictions␈α
or␈α
because␈αthe␈αcountry␈αhas␈αdone␈αbetter␈αin␈αforeign␈αbuying␈αthan␈αthe␈αworst
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hcase␈α
provided␈α
for.␈α
In␈α
these␈α
cases,␈α
the␈α
government␈α
has␈α
to␈α
take␈α
the␈α
risks␈α
if␈α
they␈α
are␈α
to␈α
be␈α
taken␈α
at␈α
all.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_3.␈α∂The␈α∂government␈α∂needs␈α∂to␈α∂co-ordinate␈α∂research␈α∂and␈α∂development␈α∞and␈α∞support␈α∞the␈α∞energy
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hresearch␈α
done␈α
in␈α
universities␈α
and␈α
non-profit␈α
institutes.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_4.␈α
Finally,␈α
the␈α
government␈α
needs␈α
to␈α
stabilize␈α
the␈α
set␈α
of␈α
energy-related␈α
regulations␈α
as␈α
far␈αas␈αis
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ ↓Hpolitically␈α
possible.
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XHolt Ashley, Aeronautics and Astronautics,
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XStanford University
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XThomas Connolly, Mechanical Engineering,
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XStanford University
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XJohn McCarthy, Computer Science,
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XStanford University
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XWilliam Reynolds, Mechanical Engineering,
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XStanford University
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XFrank G. Miller, Petroleum Engineering,
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XStanford University
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XWiilliam E. Brigham, Petroleum Engineering,
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XStanford University
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XSullivan S. Marsden, Petroleum Engineering,
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XStanford University
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XHenry J. Ramey, Jr., Petroleum Engineering,
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XStanford University
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XChanning R. Robertson, Chemical Engineering
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XStanford University
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧X
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XHoward Seifert, Aeronautics and Astronautics,
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XStanford University
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XArthur E. Bryson, Jr., Aeronautics and Astronautics,
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XStanford University
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XDonald Baganoff, Aeronautics and Astronautics,
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XStanford University
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧X
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XK. Karamcheti, Aeronautics and Astronautics,
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XStanford University
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XMilton D. Van Dyke, Aeronautics and Astronautics,
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XStanford University
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XCharles R. Steele, Aeronautics and Astronautics,
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XStanford University
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XDaniel Bershader
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XStanford University
␈↓ ↓H

␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XB. Oliver
␈↓ ↓H
␈↓ α_␈↓ αh␈↓ β8␈↓ ∧λ␈↓ ∧XHewlett-Packard
␈↓ ↓H